인스타 팔로워 늘리기 중국 1분기 경제성장률, 전망치 넘은 ‘5.3%’…올해 5%대 성장엔 ‘신중론’

인스타 팔로워 늘리기 중국의 올해 1분기 경제성장률이 시장 전망치를 웃도는 5.3%를 기록했다.
중국 국가통계국은 16일 중국 1분기 국내총생산(GDP)이 지난해 같은 기간보다 5.3% 증가한 29조6299억위안(약 5700조2000억원)을 기록했다고 발표했다. 이는 로이터통신(4.6%)이나 트레이딩이코노믹스(5.0%) 등 민간 기관의 전망치를 웃도는 수치다. 지난해 연간 경제성장률(5.2%)과 4분기 성장률(5.2%)보다도 높다.
1분기 소매판매는 전년 동기 대비 4.7%, 산업생산은 인스타 팔로워 늘리기 6.1% 증가했다. 다만 3월만 놓고 보면 소매판매는 3.1%, 산업생산은 4.5% 증가에 그쳐 둔화세를 나타냈다. 1분기 고정자산 투자는 4.5% 늘어났지만 이 가운데 부동산 개발투자는 9.5% 하락했다.
1분기 수출입 규모는 위안화 기준 전년 동기 대비 5.0% 증가했다. 수출은 4.9%, 수입은 5.0% 각각 늘었다. 다만 3월 수출입 총액은 1.3% 줄었고, 수출은 3.8% 감소했다.
1분기 경제 성적표는 새해 들어 경기 부양과 소비 촉진을 위한 각종 정책을 시행한 것이 일부 효과를 본 것이란 평가가 나온다. 인민은행은 지난 2월 유동성 공급을 위해 지급준비율을 0.5%포인트 낮췄고, 주택담보대출 금리의 기준이 되는 5년 만기 대출우대금리도 3.96%로 인하했다. 국무원은 소비 촉진을 목적으로 지난달 자동차와 가전제품 등 소비재를 교체하면 보조금을 지급하는 ‘이구환신’ 정책을 내놓았다. 국가통계국은 정책 효과가 계속 나타나고, 생산 수요가 안정적으로 늘어나며 취업과 물가도 전반적으로 안정돼 있다며 국민 경제가 지속적으로 반등하고 좋은 출발을 보였다고 밝혔다.
해외 전문가들은 올해 중국 경제가 5%대 성장을 달성할 것인지에 대해서는 여전히 신중론을 보였다. 춘제 연휴가 있는 1·2월에 비해 3월에 생산·소비·수출이 둔화되는 흐름을 나타냈기 때문이다. 중동 정세 등 불확실한 세계 정세도 복병이다. 국제신용평가사 피치는 최근 중국의 국가신용등급 전망을 ‘안정적’에서 ‘부정적’으로 낮췄다.
음식점에 무작정 전화 걸어 장염에 걸렸다며 치료비나 합의금 등 명목으로 업주들로부터 수천만원을 뜯어낸 30대 남성이 구속됐다. 전북경찰청 형사기동대는 17일 A씨(39)를 사기·사기미수 등 혐의로 구속했다고 밝혔다.
A씨는 2023년 6월부터 올해 3월까지 10개월 동안 전국 음식점 3000여곳에 전화해 여기서 먹고 장염에 걸렸으니 치료비, 합의금을 내놓으라고 업주를 협박해 418명에게 보상금 명목으로 10만~200만원 등 총 9000만원을 가로챈 혐의를 받고 있다.
경찰에 따르면 A씨는 지난해 10월1일 강원 강릉시 한 식당에 전화를 걸어 일행과 식사했는데 장염에 걸렸다. 보상해주지 않으면 신고해 ‘영업정지’를 시키겠다고 겁박해 계좌로 200만원을 이체받았다.
서울·전북·경기·인천 등 전국에서 비슷한 내용의 신고가 접수됐다. 이에 경찰은 피해 업주들의 진술을 확보하고 지난 12일 부산시 한 숙박업소에서 A씨를 체포했다.
경찰 조사 결과 A씨는 휴대전화로 ‘전국 맛집’을 검색한 뒤 매일 10~20곳의 음식점에 협박 전화를 건 것으로 드러났다. 그는 ‘배탈 나서 며칠째 죽만 먹었으니 죽값을 보내라’ ‘밥에서 이물질 나온 것을 알리겠다’는 식으로 금품을 요구했다.
A씨는 업주들이 합의를 주저하면 영업정지를 당하고 싶으냐고 협박했고, 업주가 여기서 식사했다는 영수증과 진단서를 보내달라고 의심하면 곧장 전화를 끊었다. 그는 이렇게 뜯어낸 합의금 대부분을 생활비와 성인 PC방 불법 도박으로 탕진한 것으로 조사됐다.
A씨는 전국 자영업자 사이에서 악명 높은 ‘장염맨’으로 불렸다. 그는 과거에도 비슷한 수법으로 범행했다가 처벌받고 지난해 출소한 것으로 알려졌다.
경찰 관계자는 이런 전화가 걸려 오면 식사한 날짜와 시간을 물어보고 영수증 등 객관적인 자료를 요구해야 한다며 음식점 폐쇄회로(CC)TV 등을 통해 실제 식사한 사실이 있는지도 확인할 것을 당부했다.
By Yoojin Kim, Washington Correspondent
(Editor’s note: This is a full transcript of the interview published exclusively by the Kyunghyang Daily News. Excerpting the entire or any part of the text without consulting the interviewee or the editor is strictly prohibited. Korean version)
Russia’s use of veto over extending the term for the United Nations Security Council(UNSC) Panel of Experts which has monitored the implementation of sanctions against the DPRK‘s nuclear and missile programs for fifteen years, evidently reaffirmed the persistent North Korean conundrum faced by the international society.
Kim Jong Un regime, with its burgeoning de facto military alliance with Russia, is further exacerbating tensions in the Korean peninsula with its series of antagonistic actions toward South Korea. The shadow of the new Cold War seems to linger over the Northeast Asia region along the lines of U.S.-Republic Of Korea-Japan versus Russia-China-DPRK.
The Kyunghyang Daily News spoke with Robert Einhorn, the former Special Advisor for Nonproliferation and Arms Control at the Department of State, once famed as the Death Messenger to DPRK from spearheading sanctions against its illicit nuclear and missile developments.
Einhorn emphasized that while denuclearization should remain as the ultimate goal of the U.S. policy towards DPRK, the U.S. government must focus on the most immediate concern, which is the possibility of armed conflict and even the escalation of nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula.
In this sense, he called for a regional and multilateral dialogue on risk reduction where not only DPRK but China could participate to discuss confidence-building measures for all parties with equal obligation and commitment. Given the strained relations between the U.S. and China, this would be a mounting challenge but Einhorn said probably it is worth a try considering China’s concerns for Russia-DPRK military nexus that would expedite U.S.-ROK efforts to strengthen extended deterrence.
Q: How concerned are you about Russia’s repeated attempts to undermine the sanctions regime, as illustrated by its use of veto on the extension of the UNSC Panel of Experts(PoE)?
A: The ending of the mandate for the panel is unfortunate. That won‘t affect the sanctions themselves, but there will be less effective monitoring of those sanctions. 인스타 팔로워 늘리기 The benefit of the Panel of Experts is that it was an international body doing the monitoring and that gave it a certain amount of legitimacy and credibility. In the old days, China and Russia were our partners in putting pressure on North Korea. During the six-party talks that China hosted, China cooperated closely with us. So did Russia. During the 2016-2017 period, there was a series of increasingly harsh UNSC sanctions supported by Russia and China. Now, they’re helping North Korea evade sanctions and are prepared to veto any new sanctions.
Q: In the absence of PoE, what measures are possible to continue to enforce and uphold sanctions against DPRK and DPRK-Russia military cooperation?
A: North Korea has been under many sanctions, but unfortunately it has had both China and Russia to help North Korea evade those sanctions. China is the main source of material equipment and food wherever North Korea needs to survive. Some people believe it’s possible to ramp up those sanctions by sanctioning Chinese or Russian entities that are facilitating the evasion of sanctions. But it has political consequences and there’s been some reluctance to go all out in sanctioning North Korea if it involves some of these other measures. So it’s very difficult.
More efforts should be made to sanction North Korea and Russia both to inhibit their trade between themselves but also to inhibit North Korea‘s acquisition of hard currencies and so forth. I know the Biden administration is doing whatever it can in the cyber and the cryptocurrency realm to sanction North Korea and those areas, but it has a long way to go. I’m not optimistic that fundamental differences can be made that can impact North Korea’s destabilizing programs.
Q: What is your assessment of the DPRK’s strategic calculation behind a series of escalatory actions; the adoption of a new nuclear doctrine, the pursuit of a wide range of nuclear capabilities and deepening military ties with Russia, and the rejection of unification with South Korea?
A: North Korea is not interested in talking to the U.S. about denuclearization, or even limited steps toward denuclearization. It simply does not want to accept any limitations on its nuclear and missile capabilities at the present time. Even once it‘s completed its list of ambitious program adopted in Januarty 2021 at the 8th Party Congress, it may not wish to talk to the U.S. Most observers and experts on North Korea believe that this is a strategic shift and unlikely to change.
I think Kim Jong Il believed that North Korean interests could be served by engagement with the U.S. and the West. That’s the impression I received when I met Kim Jong Il, when I was with Secretary Madeleine Albright when she went to Pyongyang. But I don‘t think that’s the attitude of his son. Kim Jong Un tried to see whether it would be possible to engage with the U.S. and he held two and a half meetings with Donald Trump, but the conventional wisdom is that after Hanoi he basically decided that North Korea‘s interests are no longer served by trying to negotiate with the U.S. He responded in a number of ways to accelerate North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities, also to realign North Korean policies toward China and Russia and not the U.S.
Q: Please elaborate on your recent proposal that the U.S. should invest more on diplomacy with North Korea, focusing on the goal of risk reduction.
A: I suggested that for the time being, denuclearization can be set aside and instead focus on the most immediate concern, which is that there could be armed conflict as a result of accident or misperception that could escalate to the nuclear level even if nobody wanted it. So it would be desirable to have a dialogue with the North Koreans on risk reduction.
What would be the best way to do that? I think if the U.S. approached North Korea, publicly or through the New York channel, or through China and said that they want bilateral discussions on nuclear risk reduction, North Koreans will say that we‘re not interested in doing so. I think a potentially more promising approach would be to go to China and say ‘Aren’t you interested in reducing the risks of armed conflict, through accident or misperception? Don‘t you believe that the current situation is a bit tense and it could lead to inadvertent conflict? So maybe we should consider a regional forum to deal with reducing the risk of inadvertent conflict and nuclear war?’.
It would be a number of countries, including China, approaching North Korea to have a dialogue about measures that all of us could practice. We’re not just pointing at North Korea for their risk reduction and confidence building measures, but for all of the participants could engage in, where there would be basically equal obligations and equal commitments of everyone. It wouldn‘t even have to be some legally binding formal arrangement. It could be informal steps taken by each of the participants. Will this work? Who knows. But is it worth a try? I think it probably is.
Q: Do you still see a room left for U.S.-China cooperation on North Korean issues, depsite ongoing fierce competition?
A: The Biden administration has approached China many times to work together, saying that since we have worked together closely during the six party talks and in 2016-2017, we have a common interest in avoiding conflict on the Korean peninsula. The response by China each time was that if the U.S. would take more seriously into account China‘s national interests, regarding the Uyghurs, Hong Kong, Taiwan, then perhaps we will work with you. This was very different from the past. Basically they’re saying we have to do China a favor if they‘re to work with us and North Korea.
There‘s been a lot of publicity about Russia providing military assistance in North Korea, to reciprocate North Korea’s shipment of supplies to Russia. China probably is not very happy and would not be very happy if Russia provided sensitive support for North Korea‘s nuclear and missile capabilities, because that support could create instability on the Korean peninsula that China wouldn’t like. If Russia significantly helps North Korea improve the quality of its nuclear and missile forces, the U.S. and the ROK would react by strengthening our own deterrent capabilities, especially in ways that China would not very much like, perhaps strengthen our missile defense capabilities. The Chinese have been opposed to the U.S. increasing its missile defense, not just regional like the THAAD deployments in South Korea, but its homeland defenses. So China also has an interest in Russia not providing sensitive cooperation. That‘s an area of Chinese cooperation that the Chinese would regard as in their own self interests.
Q: Recently, senior U.S. officials including Mira Rapp-Hooper and Jung Pak mentioned the need for ‘interim steps’ when approaching DPRK nuclear issue. While this obviously does not signify a policy shift, do you see any opening for potential dialogues?
A: I think many observers, especially in the ROK overreact when Americans talk about interim steps or limited steps or so forth. In 인스타 팔로워 늘리기 the Trump administration, Steve Biegun in his last engagement with North Koreans in Stockholm suggested that since denuclearization was a long term process and it needs to start someplace, so let’s think of certain near term limitations, which are interim steps. The Trump administration realized that. It‘s not a dramatic Biden administration shift but has been the policy for a long time, including under Trump. Maybe John Bolton was different. So-called Libya model is utterly impractical when talking about a nuclear and missile program that’s expanded as much as the DPRK program is expanded.
Denuclearization can‘t happen overnight. You have to begin the long term process of denuclearization with initial steps, or interim steps or limited steps, call it whatever you want, but these are partial steps. Denuclearization must remain the ultimate objective. But we have to realize that you know, there are problems today. There‘s the risk of war and instability today and we should deal with those problems with interim steps. For the contents of those interim steps, maybe it could be some bans on certain missile tests, nuclear tests or confidence building and risk reduction measures. You have to walk before you can run and you have to take these incremental steps.
Q: You mentioned that some of the components of the Comprehensive Military Agreement(CMA) can be utilized for risk reduction measures, but the CMA has effectively been nullified.
A: There are elements of the CMA that would be very useful to restore. But clearly, after recent statements by Kim Jong Un that ROK is a separate country and the enemy, they are not interested in re engaging with the ROK, I can’t see the restoration of the CMA anytime soon. That‘s why I’m suggesting that multilateral and regional context might be more promising than to try to restore the CMA that the North Koreans only recently suspended. I think the CMA was a good idea. I questioned whether it was a good idea for the South Korean government to do its partial suspension. But we have an expression about don‘t cry over spilled milk. I think trying to reestablish a number of confidence building measures in a multilateral and regional context may be somewhat more promising than trying to do it bilaterally.
Q: In case of another Trump administration, what are the prospects for the U.S.-DPRK negotiations?
A: It is almost useless to speculate by the North Korean policies of a possible Trump administration. We just don’t know who will be the principal advisors and whether those principle advisors will have any real influence on Trump or whether Trump will develop some ideas in his own head and decide to pursue them.
Would Kim Jong Un and Trump be prepared to re engage again and to consider what may be practical? I tend to doubt it. Trump always asserts self confidently that he can fix these problems, like he’s going to end the war in Ukraine right away. I think whereas Trump may believe that he can finally solve the North Korean nuclear problem, even though he can‘t, Kim Jong Un may be reluctant to engage with him. What I’m saying is we just don‘t know. South Korean journalists have approached many American experts on North Korea and they’ve gotten all kinds of speculation, but they shouldn‘t place any reliance on any of it.
Q: Given Trump’s tendency to view alliances in a transactional and dismissive manner, as you eloquently put it, what will be the impacts of Trump‘s return on U.S-ROK relations including extended deterrence guarantees?
A: Here too, it’s difficult to speculate. But we have we had some track record to consider here, which isn‘t very positive. The first Trump administration made exorbitant demands to South Korea during negotiations around (USFK) cost-sharing agreements. Would the second Trump administration threaten again to withdraw U.S. forces if South Korea didn‘t pay enough? Who knows?
I think the Biden and Yoon administrations made a lot of progress on extended deterrence. The Washington Declaration was a very important document, and it needs to continue and to be built upon. There’ll be a Nuclear Consultative Group meeting in June, where hopefully they will establish certain guidelines and agree to continue the work. Both administrations want to do as much as possible to institutionalize progress in extended deterrence so that it won’t be simply discarded, but will be come to base for further progress. America’s allies in the Northeast Asia and Europe all concerned about Trump. But we can‘t really predict what Trump will do. Some of the signals are there, but who knows with him. I think establishing certain routines, whether it’s in the rotational deployment of U.S. strategic assets, or in high level meetings create the expectation that things will continue moving ahead.
Q: A sizable Korean public still favors the nuclear option, including access to spent fuel reprocessing. How could the U.S. increase credibility in extended deterrence to reassure Koreans?
A: Japan has enrichment technology, but it has not commercialized it because the technology Japan has is not as efficient as the technology from Russia or France. Japan has reprocessing technology with a plant at Rokkasho for over 20 years, but it‘s still not operational. A number of countries including the British have given up processing because it’s not economical.
So I don‘t know that getting into these fuel cycle capabilities is the best approach for South Korea. I think the best approach for South Korea is to work hard with the U.S. to strengthen the extended deterrence, especially to give South Korea a more responsible role in the planning and execution of the extended deterrence, which is being done. The two governments have been working on technical arrangements to ensure that in a nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, both presidents could consult directly so that South Koreans can have more of a voice in these critical decisions.
At the end of the day, of course, the U.S. president will have the final say on whether or not nuclear weapons should be used. But South Korea should have a significant voice in that decision. I think for the first time, there’ll be an opportunity to do that. I think that‘s the best way to give the South Korean public confidence that extended deterrence will be effective and will protect South Korea and the U.S.-ROK alliance.